Bill Whalen: Politi-Cal

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The Groundhog Sez: Six More Weeks of Winter . . . and a Republican Congress?

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Since it’s an election year, you know that someone with too vivid of an imagination (and too much time on his hands) is going to connect Groundhog Day to the fall vote.

So I’ll give it a shot.

Getting our daily Phil of political prognostications . . .

This morning, Punxsutawney Phil saw his shadow — which means six more means of winter.

What does it mean politically?

Well, it turns out that Phil also saw his shadow in 1994, 2006, 1974 and 1946 — all big “surge” years in terms of congressional elections.

Then again, the big fella saw his shadow in 1980, the year of Ronald Reagan’s landslide, as well as the 2008 Obama landslide.

Before you write off Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid keep this in mind: Phil has predicted an early spring in only 14 of his 113 appearances, or about 13% of the time — a little more than one every seven times.

Nor is he all that accurate.

According to the StormFax Weather Almanac, Phil has been on target less than 40% of the time.

So rest easy Stuart Rothenberg and Charlie Cook — you’re still the best at handicapping congressional races.


Written by Bill Whalen

February 2, 2010 at 5:35 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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