Bill Whalen: Politi-Cal

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CA Senate: Campbell by . . . 15?

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No, it’s not a typo.

A new Daily Kos/Research 2000 survey has Tom Campbell leading the Republican Senate primary at 37%, followed by Carly Fiorina at 22% and Chuck DeVore at 14%.

In general election match ups, Sen. Barbara Boxer leads all three challengers. She’s 7 points ahead of Campbell (47%-40%), and 9 points ahead of both Fiorina and DeVore (respectively, 48%-39% and 47%-38%).

This doesn’t jibe with last week’s PPIC poll, which handicapped the race as Fiorina 25, Campbell 23 and DeVore 16.

Although, interestingly, Daily Kos/Research has Meg Whitman leading Steve Poizner, 46%-36%, in the GOP gubernatorial primary.  And that’s in line with PPIC, which has Whitman ahead, 38%-29%.

Granted, we’re talking about the decidedly liberal Daily Kos, which understands conservative Republicans about as well as W.C. Fields understood the virtues of temperance. Still, it underscores the mystery in this particular three-way freeway.

California’s GOP gubernatorial primary couldn’t be simpler: will a late surge carry Poizner to an upset win, or does Whitman have the right blend of strategy and organizational mechanics to fend off her rival?

But the Senate primary’s a different animal. Can Campbell, a veteran of Senate runs in 1992 and 2000, count on name recognition as a difference maker? Will Fiorina’s financial advantage put her over the top at this late stage? Or will DeVore benefit from an unseen/unanticipated Tea Party surge?  

Meanwhile, we wait for the other big poll — Field — to come out. Back in the 2006 primary, it appeared just four days before the Angelides-Westly vote (for the record, the findings were off base: Field had Westly leading by 1%; he ended up losing by a shade under 5% — a little nugget the Whitman-Poizner runner-up most likely will point out).

The people's choice?

btw, whoever this candidate “Undecided” is, he/she is running  a helluva campaign.

31%, or second place and seven points behind Whitman . . .

36%, or first place and an 11-point lead on the Senate side.

Somewhere, in the Great Beyond, Al Shugart must be wishing that he had another crack at the “none of the above” ballot option.

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Written by Bill Whalen

May 24, 2010 at 6:45 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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