Bill Whalen: Politi-Cal

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Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans by 8

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Republican candidates now hold an eight-point lead (44%-36%) over Democrats in the latest edition of Rasmussen Reports’ Generic Congressional Ballot.

It’s the GOP’s largest lead since the third week of April, when the spread was 10 points. And it ends a springtime narrowing between the two political parties.

According to Rasmussen, a solid plurality (41%) of non-affiliated voters now prefer the generic Republican candidate, while only 20% prefer the generic Democrat.

The last time the Democrats led in the generic head-to-head was June 2009 (a 41%-39( edge). Since, only once (in October) has the power-in-party cracked the 40% barrier.

As for the Republicans, they’ve never fallen under 40% since that June poll. But only once, in the first week of April of this year, did they surpass 46%.

FYI, the generic Democrat enjoyed a double-digit lead in most every survey conducted in the home stretch of the 2008 congressional election. The Dems picked up 21 House seats and 8 Senate seats amidst that anti-Republican smackdown.

But before you’re convinced that this is an exact science: don’t forget 1994’s generic congressional ballot.

The smart people, that year, said the vote was trending in the Democrats’ direction. ABC had the Dems picking up 6 points in the final week, for a 1-point over Republicans. Gallup had it 51-44 Republicans, with a four-point swing toward the Democrats in the final week. NBC gave the GOP a 46-35 lead, with a two-point pickup for the Dems in the final two weeks.

The final results: Republicans gained 54 House seats, 8 Senate seats — and control of both chambers of Congress, much to the chagrin of the first-term Democratic president.

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Written by Bill Whalen

May 25, 2010 at 8:05 am

Posted in Uncategorized

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